Updated 538 Primary Picks

GO BLINDLY

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This will be continually updated with projections for the Democratic Presidential candidates as published on Nate Silver’s website.

Note that I’ll be using Silver’s Polls-OnlyForecast. When that isn’t available, I’ll post his “Polling Averages” figures. These figures are not the same thing as polling numbers. Rather they are more like a gambler’s prediction of who will win somewhat similar to the predictions on CNN. Of course, Silver is using a more sophisticated formula than shaking the die as can be seen at his website. For more info on how Silver makes his primary predictions, visit Nate Silver’s Methodology.


NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY – February 9, 2016

POLLS-ONLY FORECAST

February 3: Sanders 99% – Clinton 1% UPDATED 6:22 PM EST | Feb 4, 2016

  • February 3: Sanders 97% – Clinton 3%
  • February 1: Sanders 96% – Clinton 4% – O’Malley <1%
  • January 31:…

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